Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab6b…521b sports 231 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,652 (+15%) realized +$1,115 · open +$537
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%45W / 166L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$2,149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$124
7 days−$31
14 days−$6
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% +$505
other 41% +$1,425
world 1% −$74
economics 1% −$54
crypto 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -36.2% -42.3% 17% 17% -11.1%
≤30d 129 -31.3% -37.9% 20% 20% -8.8%
≤90d 209 -18.5% -26.3% 21% 21% +1.6%
all 211 -17.3% -25.2% 21% 21% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 21% +3.1%
10% -32.3% 21% -6.8%
15% -38.9% 21% -15.8%
20% -44.9% 21% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$29 · ×4.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$2,149
Realized+$1,115
Unrealized+$537
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses45 / 166
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions10
Markets (closed)211 / 231
History coverage92d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $1,380 $1,895 +$515 (+37%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 38¢ 46¢ $114 $140 +$26 (+22%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 18¢ 26¢ $27 $38 +$11 (+42%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 20¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-33%)
Spread: France (-3.5) France 11¢ $10 $17 +$6 (+59%)
Spread: France (-4.5) France $5 $10 +$5 (+108%)
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Yes $8 $4 −$4 (-46%)
Spread: France (-5.5) France $2 $4 +$2 (+71%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Will Switzerland win o Jun 24 $51 +$165 +323%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $63 +$87 +140%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$49 +477%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 24 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Ghana to score first vs. England? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 +$75 +307%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $89 +$111 +124%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $11 +$84 +740%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $30 +$70 +228%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 23 $29 −$28 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $84 +$66 +79%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $29 −$28 -98%
Michael Olise: 3+ goals Jun 22 $9 −$9 -97%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $50 +$100 +197%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $23 −$22 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $33 −$32 -98%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $18 −$18 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $32 −$31 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$7 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 21 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 38¢ $116 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 18¢ $28 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France $11 1h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France $5 1h
Spread: France (-5.5) BUY France $2 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Will France win on 2026-0 BUY 33¢ $33 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Will France w BUY 18¢ $46 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 20¢ $20 1h
Michael Olise: 2+ goals BUY Yes $8 19h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $20 19h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $5 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 12¢ $18 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 19h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 25¢ $51 20h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 0.5 AND Germany to score first vs. Ec BUY 27¢ $41 23h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 23h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 24¢ $51 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 11¢ $11 43h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland $2 44h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 60¢ $59 45h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $18 46h
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes $7 46h
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $33 46h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06- BUY 33¢ $102 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 17¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,149.42 · official $2,345.88 · 746 history records