Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:58:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab6b…9e04 world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% $0
other 22% +$17
politics 10% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 8% -9.6%
all 29 +2.9% -6.9% 59% 14% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 14% -7.6%
10% -15.8% 7% -16.4%
15% -23.9% 0% -24.5%
20% -31.4% 0% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.64 per $1 lost it wins $2.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage302d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $60 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $1 $0 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $94 +$4 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $37 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $53 +$6 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $22 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $40 −$10 -25%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jan 31 $10 $0 +4%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $46 +$16 +34%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 19 $36 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 24 $36 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Oct 23 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $4 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 20 $2 +$1 +30%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Aug 20 $3 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $43 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 26¢ $43 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $34 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $60 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $49 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $16 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $33 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $14 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $47 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $6 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $39 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $5 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $25 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $15 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $38 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $31 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $7 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 70¢ $60 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 63¢ $5 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 63¢ $13 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records