Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab6a…cd58 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$31 (-3%) realized +$66 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$173
crypto 9% +$13
sports 4% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.7% -12.0% 40% 40% -12.0%
≤30d 6 -19.0% -26.7% 33% 33% -14.1%
≤90d 15 +13.9% +3.0% 60% 60% -14.2%
all 15 +13.9% +3.0% 60% 60% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 60% -14.2%
10% -6.8% 47% -22.4%
15% -15.8% 33% -29.9%
20% -24.1% 27% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$24 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage37d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $80 $61 −$19 (-24%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $80 $60 −$20 (-25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $80 $53 −$27 (-34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $80 $50 −$30 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $82 −$17 -20%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $82 +$28 +35%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $82 −$21 -25%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $82 −$15 -18%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $82 +$13 +15%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $39 +$31 +81%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $76 −$73 -97%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 25 $21 +$10 +46%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $8 +$1 +19%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$3 +57%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $8 +$2 +28%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 +$11 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $66 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $110 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $62 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $67 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $95 37h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 99¢ $70 30d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 54¢ $39 30d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 30d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 30d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 30d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 30d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 30d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 30d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 30d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 30d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 30d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 30d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 32d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 32d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 32d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 32d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 32d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 32d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 32d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 32d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 32d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 32d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL Yes 81¢ $30 35d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.21 · official $223.30 (match) · 75 history records