Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:57:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AB
0xab69…e2b7
other · 153 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$178 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$148 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses66 / 81
Open positions6
Markets (closed)147 / 153
History coverage200d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%
Chart Positions 6 History 147 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$7
14 days−$37
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $13 $11 −$3 (-21%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 18 to May 20, 2026? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? No 62¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - December 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? Jun 13 $7 −$2 -34%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $44 −$23 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$18 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $37 +$18 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $36 +$15 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $17 −$15 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$5 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $16 +$26 +164%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in July 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $18 +$10 +55%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 06 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 06 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $16 −$3 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $10 +$20 +214%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $12 −$9 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $9 −$5 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $29 +$13 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $37 −$11 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026? May 31 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $14 −$7 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $11 −$8 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $6 −$4 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $22 −$12 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $26 +$37 +141%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $20 −$13 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 27 $18 +$10 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? May 27 $11 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $12 +$2 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $2 −$1 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $6 −$4 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $28 −$6 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? May 25 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $17 +$4 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $14 −$3 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% −$105
crypto 9% −$35
politics 2% −$13
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 51m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 52m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 52m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 53m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 53m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 53m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 53m
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 55m
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 55m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 55m
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in July 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 55m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 57m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 9h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $8 9h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.8% -24.7% 25% 25% -7.3%
≤30d 93 -23.7% -31.0% 27% 23% -16.4%
≤90d 105 -22.1% -29.5% 30% 25% -18.9%
all 147 -18.7% -26.4% 45% 22% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 22% -20.8%
10% -33.4% 15% -28.4%
15% -39.9% 12% -35.3%
20% -45.8% 10% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.36 · official $42.36 (match) · 741 history records