Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

AB 0xab65…1f0d sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$339 (-23%) realized −$353 · open +$14

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip

Net edge-39%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate32%6W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$74per market

Trades / day4.6pace

Fees−$28est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$30

7 days+$30

14 days−$27

30 days−$403

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-36.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+22.6%	+10.9%	100%	100%	+10.9%
≤30d	19	-30.0%	-36.7%	32%	21%	-51.0%
≤90d	19	-30.0%	-36.7%	32%	21%	-51.0%
all	19	-30.0%	-36.7%	32%	21%	-51.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.7%	21%	-51.0%
10%	-42.7%	21%	-55.7%
15%	-48.2%	16%	-60.0%
20%	-53.3%	11%	-63.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -30% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -35% → late -25% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$36 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.13 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage

Net worth$174

Realized−$353

Unrealized+$14

Win rate (resolved)32%

Wins / losses6 / 13

Est. fees paid−$28

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage21d

Avg bet$74

Trades / day4.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage	Fennel	85¢	92¢	$160	$174	+$14 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Jun 28	$131	+$30	+23%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	Jun 20	$44	−$43	-97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	Jun 16	$14	−$14	-100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla	Jun 12	$192	−$145	-75%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 11	$72	−$71	-98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	Jun 10	$227	−$76	-33%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	Jun 10	$86	−$36	-42%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10?	Jun 09	$2	−$2	-97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	Jun 09	$291	+$14	+5%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner	Jun 09	$10	+$11	+112%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 09	$10	$0	-2%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo	Jun 09	$33	+$1	+4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 09	$7	+$3	+36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner	Jun 09	$25	$0	+2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 09	$48	−$24	-51%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 08	$19	−$19	-97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 08	$20	−$1	-5%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta	Jun 08	$3	−$3	-99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo	Jun 07	$81	−$28	-35%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage	BUY Fennel	85¢	$161	11m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	100¢	$161	33m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	81¢	$131	1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	BUY EDward Gaming	8¢	$3	7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London	BUY EDward Gaming	8¢	$41	7d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	BUY FUT Esports	10¢	$14	11d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Leviatán Esports	17¢	$66	15d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla	SELL Leviatán Esports	12¢	$44	15d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Leviatán Esports	33¢	$24	15d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Leviatán Esports	33¢	$4	15d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Leviatán Esports	33¢	$96	15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY G2	40¢	$72	16d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla	BUY Leviatán Esports	36¢	$2	16d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	BUY Global Esports	55¢	$130	17d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	SELL Global Esports	81¢	$129	17d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	BUY Global Esports	47¢	$75	17d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	SELL XLG Gaming	37¢	$26	17d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	BUY XLG Gaming	30¢	$22	17d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	BUY NRG	45¢	$36	17d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	SELL FUT Esports	30¢	$37	17d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage	BUY FUT Esports	38¢	$50	17d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	18d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	18d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	18d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$1	18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	BUY FULL SENSE	5¢	$1	18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	BUY FULL SENSE	5¢	$2	18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	BUY FULL SENSE	5¢	$2	18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	BUY FULL SENSE	5¢	$0	18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou	SELL Global Esports	93¢	$207	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.80 · official $159.71 · 95 history records