Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab65…1f0d sports 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$339 (-23%) realized −$353 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$30
14 days−$27
30 days−$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$387
other 1% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +22.6% +10.9% 100% 100% +10.9%
≤30d 19 -30.0% -36.7% 32% 21% -51.0%
≤90d 19 -30.0% -36.7% 32% 21% -51.0%
all 19 -30.0% -36.7% 32% 21% -51.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 21% -51.0%
10% -42.7% 21% -55.7%
15% -48.2% 16% -60.0%
20% -53.3% 11% -63.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$36 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$353
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage21d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Fennel 85¢ 92¢ $160 $174 +$14 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $131 +$30 +23%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $44 −$43 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $192 −$145 -75%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $72 −$71 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $227 −$76 -33%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $86 −$36 -42%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $291 +$14 +5%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $10 $0 -2%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $33 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $25 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $48 −$24 -51%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $19 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$1 -5%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $81 −$28 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 85¢ $161 11m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $161 33m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 81¢ $131 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming $3 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming $41 7d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 10¢ $14 11d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 17¢ $66 15d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 12¢ $44 15d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 33¢ $24 15d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 33¢ $4 15d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 33¢ $96 15d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 40¢ $72 16d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 36¢ $2 16d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 55¢ $130 17d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL Global Esports 81¢ $129 17d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 47¢ $75 17d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL XLG Gaming 37¢ $26 17d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $22 17d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 45¢ $36 17d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL FUT Esports 30¢ $37 17d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY FUT Esports 38¢ $50 17d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.80 on June 10? BUY Yes $1 18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE $1 18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE $2 18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE $2 18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE $0 18d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou SELL Global Esports 93¢ $207 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.80 · official $159.71 · 95 history records