Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:49:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xab64…a24a crypto 1612 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,126 (-12%) realized −$2,145 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%703W / 901L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$174
14 days−$369
30 days−$605
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,531
other 3% −$109
sports 2% +$56
weather 1% +$12
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 221 -9.7% -18.3% 47% 46% -17.3%
≤30d 687 -7.9% -16.7% 44% 43% -20.4%
≤90d 1604 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 43% -17.7%
all 1604 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 43% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 43% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 43% -25.6%
15% -31.0% 41% -32.8%
20% -37.8% 38% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$2,145
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses703 / 901
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1604 / 1612
History coverage73d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 62¢ $10 $37 +$27 (+268%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 28¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$24 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$12 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$6 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$9 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$18 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$22 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$10 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$31 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$14 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$7 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$9 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$7 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$8 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$9 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$23 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$9 +70%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +41%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$26 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$11 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$16 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$17 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$19 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $13 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.72 · official $99.50 · 3500 history records