Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab63…1551 sports 520 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (199 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$415 (+8%) realized +$414 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate61%312W / 201L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day198.7pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$225
14 days+$331
30 days+$324
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$410
crypto 27% −$16
other 4% −$62
world 2% +$8
politics 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (199 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 38% -4.4%
≤30d 513 +4.7% -5.3% 61% 34% -4.1%
≤90d 513 +4.7% -5.3% 61% 34% -4.1%
all 513 +4.7% -5.3% 61% 34% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover198.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.3% 34% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 27% -13.2%
15% -22.6% 21% -21.6%
20% -30.2% 17% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$414
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses312 / 201
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions7
Markets (closed)513 / 520
History coverage14d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day198.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 513 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $84 $85 +$1 (+1%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Tereza Valentova 41¢ 40¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Nuno Borges 28¢ 28¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Nikoloz Basilashvili 56¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 34¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $24 −$1 -6%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $9 +$18 +205%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $65 +$38 +58%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $206 −$8 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$3 +262%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +165%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $111 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 −$5 -34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $31 −$6 -19%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +197%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $12 −$1 -8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
CD Concepción vs. CD Limache: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 −$1 -29%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3 −$1 -20%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.16 · official $102.16 (match) · 3240 history records