Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xab63…8f4b crypto 497 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,431 (-13%) realized −$19,560 · open −$871
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate51%251W / 244L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Fees−$358est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,770
7 days−$15,180
14 days−$15,180
30 days−$15,180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$8,804
other 29% −$5,388
sports 18% −$10,792
politics 1% −$14
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -12.9% -21.2% 54% 29% -28.9%
≤30d 35 -12.9% -21.2% 54% 29% -28.9%
≤90d 495 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 37% -23.6%
all 495 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 37% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 37% -23.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 28% -30.9%
15% -30.3% 21% -37.6%
20% -37.1% 16% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -0% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$198 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$3,129
Realized−$19,560
Unrealized−$871
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses251 / 244
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$358
Open positions1
Markets (closed)495 / 497
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$324
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 48¢ $4,000 $3,129 −$871 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $3,008 +$289 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3,525 +$1,056 +30%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $5,031 −$5,000 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $1,021 +$608 +60%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5,043 +$127 +2%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2,010 +$93 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,051 −$2,000 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $510 −$500 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1,975 −$1,934 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $3,043 −$3,000 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $549 −$535 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5,002 +$63 +1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $701 −$33 -5%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $673 −$107 -16%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $2,022 −$2,000 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,025 −$5,000 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $1,017 +$767 +76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $2,019 +$741 +37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,021 +$751 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $105 +$103 +98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,031 −$1,785 -59%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $1,002 +$75 +8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $606 +$1,179 +194%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $5,009 +$291 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,020 +$980 +48%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $4,004 +$118 +3%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$193 +189%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $1,000 +$14 +1%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $2,304 +$140 +6%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $510 −$36 -7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,010 +$461 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 19 $519 −$411 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 19 $207 −$183 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 19 $119 −$100 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 19 $102 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 19 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 19 $42 +$46 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 19 $272 −$272 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 19 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 19 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 19 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 19 $53 +$62 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 91¢ $3,008 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,582 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 79¢ $5,031 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 48¢ $1,629 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 15¢ $2,051 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 6h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 77¢ $995 6h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $510 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $3,525 6h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 29¢ $1,021 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $4,046 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 69¢ $4,044 6h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $5,043 13h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $2,010 13h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1,975 21h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $3,043 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $549 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $5,002 24h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $669 31h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $567 31h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $2,022 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $5,025 31h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 79¢ $1,784 31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 94¢ $2,760 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $5,772 31h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $1,017 35h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 68¢ $2,019 35h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $5,021 35h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $626 41h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $673 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,129.03 · official $3,129.03 (match) · 3500 history records