Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:12:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab61…bae5 other 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$38
sports 26% −$23
politics 7% −$4
crypto 6% −$5
culture 6% −$5
economics 4% −$4
world 4% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 233 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)233 / 234
History coverage127d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 96¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $312 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $185 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $182 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $252 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $602 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $182 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $221 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $585 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $575 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $396 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $200 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $494 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $280 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $454 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 07 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $654 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $349 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $270 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $691 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $497 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $49 10m
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 51m
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $49 7h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 8h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 11h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 13h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 15h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $49 16h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $49 18h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $49 19h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 21h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $49 22h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $49 23h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 26h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 28h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 38h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 40h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 41h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 42h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $49 44h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 46h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.44 · official $48.44 (match) · 1326 history records