Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
AB 0xab59…ea9a crypto 127 markets active 22d ago coverage 582d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Covers last 582d only
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17,996 (+20%) realized +$17,996 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate62%79W / 48L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$725per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% +$7,382
other 24% +$1,544
crypto 9% −$532
sports 3% +$2,047
economics 0% +$7
world 0% +$44
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -34.2% -40.5% 50% 50% -6.3%
≤90d 2 -34.2% -40.5% 50% 50% -6.3%
all 127 +33.7% +20.9% 62% 42% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.9% 42% +0.8%
10% +9.4% 35% -8.9%
15% -1.2% 30% -17.7%
20% -10.9% 26% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +72% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$87 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.53 per $1 lost it wins $3.53
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17,996
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses79 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage582d ⚠
Avg bet$725
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February? Jun 02 $259 +$82 +32%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jan 22 $21 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Jan 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jan 22 $45 +$5 +10%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 22 $73 +$3 +4%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Jan 22 $88 +$69 +79%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 30 $1,175 −$38 -3%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 26 $337 +$87 +26%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 26 $20 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 26 $29 +$3 +9%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 26 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Eric Adams drop out? Oct 02 $6 +$4 +79%
Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Oct 02 $40 $0 +0%
WLFI market cap (FDV) $10-12B one day after launch? Sep 20 $30 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 20 $39 +$1 +3%
WLFI market cap (FDV) <$10B one day after launch? Sep 20 $38 +$2 +6%
WLFI market cap (FDV) $12-14B one day after launch? Sep 20 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Aug 11 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Aug 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Aug 11 $421 −$421 -100%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Aug 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
WLFI market cap (FDV) >$16B one day after launch? Jul 31 $562 −$295 -52%
Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? Jul 12 $755 +$745 +99%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Jul 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on July 1? Jul 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 27 $17 +$3 +21%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 27 $174 +$26 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 27 $319 +$1 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? May 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21? May 16 $126 −$126 -100%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 16 $8,335 +$5,884 +71%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 15 $182 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin above $89,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $264 +$36 +14%
Will Solana hit $170 in March? Mar 11 $187 +$48 +25%
Will Solana dip to $130 in March? Mar 11 $180 +$120 +67%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 02 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 02 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 02 $508 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? Feb 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Solana dip to $160 by February 28 2025? Feb 27 $28 +$172 +614%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Will CZ post a picture of his dog by Friday? Feb 20 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum above $3,400 on February 7? Feb 08 $120 −$120 -100%
Solana above $240 on February 7? Feb 08 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin above $105,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $541 −$541 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $70 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February? BUY Yes 76¢ $22 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 142d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February? BUY Yes 76¢ $228 142d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $48 232d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $25 232d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $59 239d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $368 239d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $3 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $11 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $4 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $1 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $2 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $0 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $1 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $4 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? BUY No $10 240d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL No $5 240d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records