Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AB
0xab57…842b
other · 364 markets active 53d ago
0.0score
+$370,260 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$370,260 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$0
Realized+$370,260
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses296 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)364 / 364
History coverage658d
Avg bet$7,030
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 0 History 364 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Apr 20 $486 +$144 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $9,051 +$676 +8%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Apr 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Apr 14 $86 −$86 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Apr 14 $1,508 −$1,508 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Apr 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Apr 14 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Apr 14 $195 +$5 +2%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Apr 14 $198 +$2 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 14 $29,423 +$1,551 +5%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $100 +$9 +9%
Bill Clinton in jail by January 31? Feb 13 $195 +$3 +2%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $200 +$5 +2%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? Feb 13 $200 +$44 +22%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? Feb 13 $200 +$87 +43%
Bill Clinton charged by January 31? Feb 13 $2,441 +$59 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 27 $2,142 +$848 +40%
Will Fogo launch a token by September 30 2026? Jan 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will Fogo launch a token by June 30 2026? Jan 15 $13 $0 +4%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 10? Jan 15 $190 +$10 +5%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 12? Jan 15 $188 +$12 +6%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 11? Jan 15 $200 +$11 +5%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? Jan 15 $200 +$27 +14%
Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by January 31? Jan 15 $960 +$40 +4%
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2025? Jan 15 $1,015 +$53 +5%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 41.0 on January 9, 2026? Jan 12 $172 +$22 +13%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 7? Jan 12 $192 +$8 +4%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 8? Jan 12 $194 +$6 +3%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 9? Jan 12 $192 +$8 +4%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? Jan 12 $200 +$10 +5%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 6? Jan 10 $192 +$8 +4%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 5? Jan 10 $200 +$7 +3%
US stagflation in 2025? Jan 10 $215 +$4 +2%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 10 $109 −$109 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 10 $2,263 −$1,981 -88%
Another US strike on Venezuela on January 4? Jan 07 $196 +$4 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 05 $355,638 +$916 +0%
Maduro out by December 31, 2026? Jan 03 $800 +$100 +12%
Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files? Jan 01 $14 +$2 +11%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $380 before 2026?? Jan 01 $50 +$1 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition Jan 01 $127 +$1 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit $220 before 2026?? Jan 01 $197 +$4 +2%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $335 before 2026?? Jan 01 $227 +$3 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $420 before 2026?? Jan 01 $239 +$15 +6%
Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025? Jan 01 $296 +$4 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $260 before 2026?? Jan 01 $332 +$17 +5%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $250 before 2026?? Jan 01 $382 +$12 +3%
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025? Jan 01 $653 +$30 +4%
Will Israel strike 3 or more countries in December 2025? Jan 01 $762 +$43 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% +$21,656
politics 25% +$411,589
crypto 21% +$6,856
economics 8% −$75,451
world 4% +$1,240
culture 3% +$1,685
tech 1% +$1,909
sports 0% +$745
finance 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $58 53d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1 53d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 53d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $82 53d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $82 53d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $82 53d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $16 53d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 54d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $82 54d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $82 54d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $18 54d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $82 54d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $32 54d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9,067 58d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $589 58d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 58d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 58d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $68 58d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 59d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes $1,108 135d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes $800 136d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $101 158d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 158d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $1 158d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $7,835 159d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $18 159d
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 41.0 on January 9, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1 159d
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 41.0 on January 9, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $7 159d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 159d
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 41.0 on January 9, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $89 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 11 -17.5% -25.3% 73% 18% -8.0%
all 364 -3.2% -12.4% 81% 18% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 18% +3.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 6% -6.3%
15% -28.4% 4% -15.4%
20% -35.4% 2% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records