Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab54…da9f crypto 498 markets active 3h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,899 (+21%) realized +$2,885 · open +$1,014
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%122W / 359L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$43
14 days+$2,438
30 days+$2,892
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$3,562
sports 4% −$56
other 3% −$336
politics 2% +$123
economics 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -29.6% -36.3% 35% 33% -12.2%
≤30d 334 -39.7% -45.4% 24% 24% +20.6%
≤90d 481 -35.7% -41.8% 25% 25% +6.9%
all 481 -35.7% -41.8% 25% 25% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 25% +6.9%
10% -47.4% 25% -3.3%
15% -52.5% 24% -12.6%
20% -57.1% 23% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$18 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$4,957
Realized+$2,885
Unrealized+$1,014
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses122 / 359
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions14
Markets (closed)481 / 498
History coverage61d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 73¢ $2,285 $3,139 +$854 (+37%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $1,332 $1,487 +$155 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+21%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 334 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 +$37 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$20 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$15 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$72 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$69 +121%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$95 +91%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$17 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$59 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 +$3 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $26 +$6 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $53 −$50 -94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 22h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 14¢ $46 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,956.73 · official $4,956.73 (match) · 969 history records