Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab53…083e crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$923 · open −$918
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%23W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$989per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$990now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$928
politics 28% +$8
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 +1.9% -7.8% 75% 12% -9.6%
all 26 +3.0% -6.8% 88% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 12% -9.5%
10% -15.7% 4% -18.2%
15% -23.9% 4% -26.1%
20% -31.3% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$990
Realized+$923
Unrealized−$918
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses23 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage595d
Avg bet$989
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET Down 100¢ 52¢ $1,902 $983 −$918 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $8,695 −$11 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 21 $8,692 $0 -0%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Apr 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co Apr 09 $1 $0 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in January? Apr 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? Apr 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Apr 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Jan 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 15 $1 $0 +10%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 15 $1 $0 +22%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Nov 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $220 and $230 on September 21? Oct 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $190 in September? Oct 23 $11 +$1 +5%
Ethereum above $4000 on August 22? Sep 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 21 $3 $0 +2%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Aug 22 $1 $0 +6%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence? Aug 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Aug 22 $2 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 15 $7,356 +$8 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $299 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $199 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $194 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $198 2h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $8,684 2h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8,695 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $6,398 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $2,291 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $243 37h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $8,446 40h
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 73d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Co BUY Yes 89¢ $1 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 73d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $4 157d
Will Solana dip to $80 in January? BUY No 99¢ $1 157d
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 157d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 191d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 92¢ $1 191d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 91¢ $1 191d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 221d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $990.35 · official $990.35 (match) · 162 history records