Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AB 0xab52…343f weather 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$34 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%24W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$845per market
Trades / day59.2pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$9,899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$31
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 24 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.1%
15% ← realistic here -25.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$588) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9,899
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses24 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)24 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$845
Trades / day59.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $3,187 $3,189 +$2 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,683 $1,683 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,514 $1,515 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,400 $1,401 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $749 $750 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $637 $637 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 25°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $404 $405 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $209 $209 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,453 +$3 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $105 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 25? Jun 25 $251 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 25? Jun 25 $588 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $428 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $322 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $98 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $287 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $327 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $357 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $434 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $242 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,670 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $854 +$2 +0%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $115 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 25? Jun 25 $421 +$1 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $43 +$3 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 25? Jun 25 $260 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? Jun 25 $319 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $142 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4,962 +$9 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 25? Jun 25 $3,397 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $136 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $109 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $100 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $501 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $108 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $296 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $221 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $840 5h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $101 6h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $613 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $699 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $391 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $256 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $115 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $110 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $749 12h
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on June 25? BUY Up 100¢ $115 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $319 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $260 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $999 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $3,188 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $195 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 6°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,487 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $1,913 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 5°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $300 16h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,899.46 · official $9,899.46 (match) · 93 history records