Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab50…79bd crypto 688 markets active 7d ago coverage 111d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,169 (-3%) realized −$2,169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate57%395W / 293L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 111d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,668
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 46% -8.5%
≤30d 120 -4.0% -13.1% 50% 49% -15.1%
≤90d 546 -8.9% -17.5% 62% 35% -14.2%
all 688 -11.3% -19.7% 57% 35% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 35% -15.3%
10% -27.4% 30% -23.4%
15% -34.4% 25% -30.8%
20% -40.8% 20% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$79 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses395 / 293
Open positions0
Markets (closed)688 / 688
History coverage111d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 688 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 10 $289 −$289 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$69 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 10 $95 +$145 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $158 +$71 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 10 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $186 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $106 +$204 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $95 +$17 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 10 $85 +$98 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $191 +$110 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 10 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 10 $128 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $126 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $264 +$245 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $49 +$26 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $120 +$80 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 10 $95 +$77 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $52 +$48 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $98 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 08 $233 −$233 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 08 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 08 $123 +$32 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $60 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 07 $273 −$118 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 07 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 07 $297 −$297 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $217 −$217 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $168 −$168 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 07 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 07 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $347 −$12 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $146 +$118 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $97 +$135 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $141 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $23 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $173 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $259 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $53 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $240 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $95 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $13 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $215 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $158 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $64 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $22 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $42 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $126 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $204 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $145 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $106 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $112 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $95 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $43 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $47 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $78 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1754 history records