Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab4f…97e6 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-2%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$21
other 28% +$6
politics 11% +$1
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% $0
weather 3% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 10 -2.6% -11.9% 20% 0% -14.2%
≤90d 10 -2.6% -11.9% 20% 0% -14.2%
all 43 +0.3% -9.3% 33% 5% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 5% -11.2%
10% -18.0% 5% -19.7%
15% -25.9% 2% -27.4%
20% -33.1% 2% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage471d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $26 $0 -1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $73 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $96 −$18 -19%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $27 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $26 −$1 -5%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 25 $14 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -36%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 13 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 09 $17 −$1 -5%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 09 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gualberto Cusi Mamani win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Pascal Siakam Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10-1.14ºC in May 2025? Jun 07 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 06 $16 +$1 +4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 15 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 06 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 04 $13 +$7 +51%
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Bundesliga? Apr 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025? Apr 02 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 29 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Mar 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 18? Mar 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Mar 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $25 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 85¢ $26 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 86¢ $26 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $28 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $28 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $28 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 17¢ $14 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $10 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $7 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $20 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $30 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $30 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $30 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $27 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $1 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 84¢ $26 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $27 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $27 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $22 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $27 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $27 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 72¢ $25 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $27 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $27 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 91¢ $24 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.20 · official $25.20 (match) · 139 history records