Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab4e…5258 other 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%6W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$36
sports 20% −$16
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$7
crypto 7% −$6
economics 6% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses6 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)238 / 239
History coverage129d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $176 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $493 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $252 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $529 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $269 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $371 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $228 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $275 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $677 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $203 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $163 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $350 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $336 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $531 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $194 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $199 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $167 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $124 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $198 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $185 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $375 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $195 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $183 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $277 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $482 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $613 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $201 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $527 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 53m
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 2h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 3h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 4h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 6h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 13h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 15h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 17h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 19h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 20h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 21h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $50 22h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 24h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 26h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 27h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $50 41h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $50 42h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 45h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $51 46h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.37 · official $49.37 (match) · 1337 history records