Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AB 0xab4c…37f5 other 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$369 (+14%) realized +$656 · open −$287
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$465
crypto 16% −$405
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.7% -5.3% 25% 25% +5.2%
≤30d 20 +4.7% -5.3% 25% 25% +5.2%
≤90d 20 +4.7% -5.3% 25% 25% +5.2%
all 20 +4.7% -5.3% 25% 25% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 25% +5.2%
10% -14.3% 20% -4.8%
15% -22.6% 20% -14.0%
20% -30.2% 15% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$289 vs −$73 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$184
Realized+$656
Unrealized−$287
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 23¢ 9¢ $472 $184 −$287 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $439 +$48 +11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $300 +$139 +46%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $120 −$116 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $323 −$318 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $40 +$282 +704%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $100 −$96 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $50 −$48 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $100 −$96 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $100 −$96 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $50 −$48 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $40 −$39 -96%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -96%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -96%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $80 +$394 +493%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $75 −$73 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $172 +$585 +340%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 23¢ $487 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $439 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 26¢ $100 23h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $300 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $323 25h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 33h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $50 33h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 33h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 33h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 33h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $50 33h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 33h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 42h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 42h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 42h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 42h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 42h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 42h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $45 44h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $50 44h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 44h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 44h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 45h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 22¢ $172 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.29 · official $184.29 (match) · 35 history records