Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab4c…7574 world 68 markets active 1d ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate29%20W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3
other 22% −$1
politics 18% $0
sports 9% −$12
economics 4% $0
finance 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.0% -11.4% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 67 +0.2% -9.4% 30% 1% -9.6%
all 68 -1.3% -10.7% 29% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 1% -9.9%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses20 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)68 / 68
History coverage483d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 68 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $44 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $32 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $161 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $56 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $74 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $83 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $55 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $66 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $68 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $67 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $30 +$1 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $29 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $55 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $66 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 18 $46 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $136 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $32 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $63 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $65 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 35h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $23 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $35 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $32 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $32 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records