Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:20:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
AB 0xab47…d57f crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-14%) realized +$187 · open −$371
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$182
other 24% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 60% 60% +19.9%
≤30d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 60% 60% +19.9%
≤90d 5 +16.4% +5.3% 60% 60% +19.9%
all 5 +16.4% +5.3% 60% 60% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.3% 60% +19.9%
10% ← realistic here -4.8% 60% +8.4%
15% -14.0% 60% -2.0%
20% -22.4% 60% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$38 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized+$187
Unrealized−$371
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $46 $1 −$45 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $57 −$50 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $232 +$154 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $134 +$96 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $127 −$26 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.71 · official $299.71 (match) · 34 history records