Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:28:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
AB 0xab43…2b99 crypto 284 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%274W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day42.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$5
finance 3% −$18
sports 1% +$2
other 1% +$1
politics 0% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 283 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 283 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 0% -10.0%
all 283 -0.4% -9.9% 97% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses274 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)283 / 284
History coverage7d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day42.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? No 98¢ 89¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 16m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 9h
Will Rebekah LaVann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? BUY No 98¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 12h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.86 · official $17.86 (match) · 563 history records