Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:34:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
AB 0xab43…c6ca other 355 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$697 (+4%) realized +$701 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%158W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$12
14 days+$33
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$86
sports 5% +$105
politics 2% −$352
world 1% −$2
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$3
finance 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +23.7% +11.9% 42% 40% +0.3%
≤30d 98 +13.8% +3.0% 43% 38% -1.1%
≤90d 204 +15.7% +4.7% 42% 35% -9.3%
all 340 +19.6% +8.2% 46% 40% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 40% -11.3%
10% -2.2% 34% -19.8%
15% -11.6% 28% -27.5%
20% -20.3% 24% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$37 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$701
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses158 / 182
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)340 / 355
History coverage140d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 31¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+151%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes $5 $1 −$3 (-72%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 38¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $6 −$2 -33%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 26 $19 +$8 +44%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $9 −$9 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $6 +$4 +76%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2. Jun 23 $1 +$4 +416%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $1 $0 +30%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $6 $0 -0%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $4 +$6 +170%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 21 $3 $0 -2%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $7 +$3 +49%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $3 $0 +1%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $3 +$7 +220%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +354%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $4 +$6 +163%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $3 +$7 +216%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $24 +$17 +71%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 +$8 +525%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 20 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$3 +226%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 +$6 +510%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $4 +$6 +127%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $42 −$16 -38%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $9 +$1 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $24 −$5 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $3 +$2 +58%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 1h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 70¢ $4 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists AND Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. F BUY 32¢ $5 2h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 21h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 AND Türkiye vs. United States: United BUY 24¢ $1 22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 42h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $6 43h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 0.5 AND Tunisia vs. Nethe BUY 14¢ $1 45h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs BUY 27¢ $3 45h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republi BUY 28¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 52¢ $4 3d
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 3d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Under 25¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.38 · official $11.38 (match) · 2210 history records