Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
AB 0xab41…6707 crypto 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,377 (+4%) realized +$5,370 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate74%73W / 26L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$1,301per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$297
14 days+$522
30 days+$593
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,438
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +29.0% +16.7% 100% 100% +16.7%
≤30d 3 +24.9% +13.0% 100% 100% +13.3%
≤90d 12 +1.8% -7.9% 58% 50% -11.4%
all 99 -1.0% -10.4% 74% 33% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 33% -5.6%
10% -19.0% 10% -14.7%
15% -26.8% 2% -22.9%
20% -34.0% 2% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$1,989) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$313 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$1,222
Realized+$5,370
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses73 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage454d
Avg bet$1,301
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? No 88¢ 88¢ $1,215 $1,222 +$7 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,026 +$297 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $1,017 +$225 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $304 +$72 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $324 −$20 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 12? May 09 $358 −$34 -9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 8? May 07 $315 +$44 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 1? May 01 $656 −$21 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 24? Apr 22 $301 +$38 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $225 +$76 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 17? Apr 14 $228 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on August 15? Apr 08 $808 −$808 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 10? Apr 07 $215 +$13 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on Septembe Feb 26 $346 −$81 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on Septembe Sep 18 $69 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on Septembe Sep 18 $62 +$7 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on Septembe Sep 17 $306 −$89 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116,000 and $118,000 on Septembe Sep 16 $187 −$36 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112K on August 15? Aug 09 $100 −$47 -47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $117K on August 8? Aug 08 $182 −$60 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $111K on August 8? Aug 06 $804 +$111 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $118K on August 1? Aug 01 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $112K on August 1? Aug 01 $522 +$103 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $119K on July 18? Jul 17 $2,373 −$881 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $116K on July 18? Jul 15 $2,312 +$48 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $112K on July 16? Jul 14 $1,480 +$53 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $111K on July 11? Jul 10 $1,415 +$223 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $107K and $109K on July 11? Jul 10 $1,352 +$64 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $105K and $107K on July 11? Jul 09 $1,200 +$152 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $105K on July 11? Jul 09 $1,072 +$128 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on July 9? Jul 07 $1,000 +$72 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 4? Jul 03 $1,068 +$83 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on July 4? Jul 03 $1,000 +$211 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 27? Jun 26 $928 +$81 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 27? Jun 25 $922 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 27? Jun 25 $727 +$195 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on June 20? Jun 20 $710 +$17 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $110K on June 11 at 5 P Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $109K on June 11 at 5 P Jun 11 $1,574 −$1,477 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 13? Jun 11 $2,222 +$297 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on June 10? Jun 10 $1,959 +$502 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on June 13? Jun 09 $684 +$92 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on June 6 at 5 PM Jun 06 $651 +$33 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $103K on June 6 at 5 PM ET? Jun 06 $666 −$15 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 6? Jun 06 $1,657 −$207 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $102K on June 6? Jun 06 $619 +$21 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on June 6? Jun 06 $788 −$170 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $105K on June 4 at 5 PM ET? Jun 06 $821 −$821 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on June 6? Jun 05 $785 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $107K on June 4 at 5 PM ET? Jun 04 $774 +$48 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $105K on June 3 at 5 PM ET? Jun 03 $758 +$16 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $181 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $264 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $264 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $510 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 75¢ $894 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 82¢ $1,013 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 76¢ $1,041 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 78¢ $1,109 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? SELL No 98¢ $1,323 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 12? BUY No 76¢ $1,026 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 5? SELL No 94¢ $1,242 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 75¢ $1,017 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 22? BUY No 80¢ $304 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 15? SELL No 79¢ $304 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 15? BUY No 82¢ $324 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 12? SELL No 67¢ $325 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 12? BUY No 71¢ $1 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 12? BUY No 71¢ $357 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 8? SELL No 91¢ $358 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 8? BUY No 78¢ $5 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 8? BUY No 78¢ $310 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 1? SELL No 88¢ $315 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 1? BUY No 87¢ $317 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 1? SELL No 83¢ $321 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 1? BUY No 87¢ $339 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 24? SELL No 98¢ $281 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 24? SELL No 98¢ $59 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 24? BUY No 86¢ $301 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 17? SELL No 97¢ $3 61d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 17? SELL No 97¢ $48 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,222.19 · official $1,222.19 (match) · 258 history records