Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AB 0xab40…b57d finance 137 markets active 6h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,623 (+3%) realized +$3,486 · open +$137
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate96%130W / 5L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$769per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$2,691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$479
14 days+$663
30 days+$2,761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 69% +$2,286
other 23% +$792
tech 5% +$60
politics 2% +$91
crypto 1% +$174
sports 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 4% -8.0%
≤30d 89 +2.4% -7.3% 99% 6% -6.4%
≤90d 135 +2.0% -7.7% 96% 7% -6.5%
all 135 +2.0% -7.7% 96% 7% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 7% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 2% -15.5%
15% -24.6% 1% -23.6%
20% -32.0% 1% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$894) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$71 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×10.23 per $1 lost it wins $10.23
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$2,691
Realized+$3,486
Unrealized+$137
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses130 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage44d
Avg bet$769
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $2,530 $2,679 +$149 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 15 2026? Yes 99¢ 51¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $3,328 +$33 +1%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 185 ( Jun 12 $218 +$3 +2%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 195 ( Jun 12 $286 +$4 +2%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 190 ( Jun 12 $456 +$15 +3%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 180 ( Jun 12 $293 +$5 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $1,728 +$12 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5,541 +$41 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $3,826 +$7 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $1,793 +$100 +6%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $217 +$2 +1%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $178 +$2 +1%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $94 +$1 +1%
Airbnb (ABNB) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +1%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $233 +$5 +2%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $203 +$2 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $570 +$125 +22%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $94 +$1 +1%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $901 +$12 +1%
EWY (EWY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $17 $0 +1%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $495 +$5 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2,253 +$29 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 9? Jun 09 $291 +$3 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $99 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $4,808 +$16 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $585 +$54 +9%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on June 8? Jun 08 $104 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1,528 +$44 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1,813 +$21 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in June? Jun 05 $1,467 +$34 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $1,576 +$47 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $340 −$339 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 4? Jun 04 $455 +$8 +2%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $300 +$15 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 4? Jun 04 $454 +$22 +5%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 4? Jun 04 $899 +$9 +1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $425 +$7 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $3,059 +$18 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,242 +$69 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $3,900 +$32 +1%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $466 +$5 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $2,095 +$14 +1%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $29 +$1 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $894 +$179 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? May 31 $2,816 +$81 +3%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? May 30 $1,771 +$91 +5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 30 $894 +$23 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $2,247 +$81 +4%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $112 +$1 +1%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $210 +$1 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on May 28? May 28 $253 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? SELL Yes 93¢ $3,370 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,161 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,516 5h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $115 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 98¢ $515 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 96¢ $91 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 94¢ $198 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 87¢ $733 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 85¢ $831 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 74¢ $327 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY Yes 73¢ $373 7h
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 99¢ $198 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 100¢ $89 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO BUY Yes 99¢ $3,041 2d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 180 ( BUY No 98¢ $293 2d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 185 ( BUY No 98¢ $218 2d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 190 ( BUY No 97¢ $456 2d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 195 ( BUY No 98¢ $286 2d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL No 100¢ $1,740 2d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 99¢ $1,104 2d
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 99¢ $625 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 100¢ $5,582 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $2,799 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $794 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $495 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $1,452 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 100¢ $326 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 100¢ $3,507 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 100¢ $326 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,691.39 · official $2,691.39 (match) · 555 history records