Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

AB 0xab3e…afac other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$22 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown94%max

Avg bet$196per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+7.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+18.6%	+7.3%	50%	50%	-7.0%
≤30d	4	+18.6%	+7.3%	50%	50%	-7.0%
≤90d	4	+18.6%	+7.3%	50%	50%	-7.0%
all	4	+18.6%	+7.3%	50%	50%	-7.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.3%	50%	-7.0%
10%	-3.0%	50%	-15.9%
15%	-12.4%	50%	-24.0%
20%	-21.0%	25%	-31.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$188 vs −$177 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.06 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$110

Realized+$22

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage4d

Avg bet$196

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown94%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$113	$110	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$322	−$320	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$303	+$145	+48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$35	−$35	-100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	+$231	+226%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$115	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	23¢	$90	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$322	26h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	25¢	$102	26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	93¢	$35	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$303	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$102	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.39 · official $110.39 (match) · 9 history records