Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:42:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab38…9342 world 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3
politics 18% −$1
sports 16% −$19
other 14% +$9
economics 5% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.8% -7.9% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 25 +0.5% -9.1% 32% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 66 +1.2% -8.4% 32% 2% -9.6%
all 70 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.9%
10% -18.2% 3% -18.6%
15% -26.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -33.4% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage521d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 85¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 53¢ 88¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+65%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 16¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $42 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $17 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $3 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $80 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $48 −$1 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $72 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $42 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $98 −$4 -4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $32 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $206 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $34 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $56 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $150 +$1 +1%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $77 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $108 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $38 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $70 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $69 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $19 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $4 $0 -5%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $39 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $39 7h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $39 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 15h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $42 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $43 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $42 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $36 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $36 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $13 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.27 · official $39.10 · 300 history records