Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab30…88db sports 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized +$437 · open −$501
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%75W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$102est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$265
7 days−$599
14 days−$209
30 days−$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$987
other 25% +$435
world 5% +$111
crypto 3% −$265
finance 1% −$1
weather 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +23.8% +12.1% 50% 43% -29.5%
≤30d 65 +3.4% -6.4% 48% 45% -13.1%
≤90d 103 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 48% -11.0%
all 146 +4.9% -5.1% 51% 49% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 49% -10.9%
10% -14.1% 48% -19.5%
15% -22.4% 45% -27.2%
20% -30.0% 41% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$63 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized+$437
Unrealized−$501
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses75 / 71
Est. fees paid−$102
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage106d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $283 $281 −$1 (-0%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Under 48¢ $500 $1 −$499 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $396 −$251 -63%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $483 +$279 +58%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +247%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $175 −$5 -3%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $259 −$259 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $69 +$1 +2%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $209 +$160 +76%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $203 −$2 -1%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $76 +$106 +139%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $106 +$44 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$24 +238%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $402 −$402 -100%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Mark Lajal Jun 05 $72 −$72 -100%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 05 $102 +$102 +101%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $59 −$59 -100%
Foggia: Darya Astakhova vs Lisa Pigato Jun 03 $81 −$81 -100%
Centurion 2: Devin Badenhorst vs Eliakim Coulibaly Jun 03 $89 +$51 +58%
Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Jun 03 $101 +$87 +86%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Jun 03 $101 +$73 +72%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $101 +$61 +60%
Tyler: Timo Legout vs Andres Andrade Jun 02 $101 −$7 -7%
Besiktas vs. Bahcesehir Koleji Jun 02 $100 +$51 +51%
Perugia: Pierluigi Basile vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 02 $140 +$1 +1%
Prostejov: Maxim Mrva vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 02 $30 −$30 -100%
Centurion 2: Robert Strombachs vs Millen Hurrion Jun 02 $101 −$38 -38%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Tereza Martincova Jun 02 $101 +$65 +64%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg Jun 02 $101 +$60 +59%
Monaco vs. Nanterre Jun 01 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $89 +$68 +76%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $101 +$95 +93%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $31 −$31 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 +$114 +112%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $101 +$56 +55%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) May 30 $76 −$72 -94%
Will Malmo FF win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 +$73 +72%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $76 −$38 -49%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $73 +$78 +107%
Will Kataller Toyama win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$8 -16%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $155 −$155 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-05-20? May 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Leandro Rie May 22 $67 −$59 -88%
Spread: CS Independiente Rivadavia (-1.5) May 21 $101 −$100 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $81 +$89 +109%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $102 +$110 +108%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina May 21 $102 −$74 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 23m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $281 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $508 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $762 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $170 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 49¢ $170 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $175 12h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $313 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $244 12h
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu BUY Jacob Fearnley 24¢ $218 12h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $218 12h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 30¢ $6 12h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 23¢ $51 13h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 28¢ $10 13h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 69¢ $202 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $100 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 38¢ $70 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $69 26h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Viktorija Golubic 55¢ $7 33h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Viktorija Golubic 56¢ $203 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 52¢ $145 35h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 59¢ $201 35h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle SELL Jesper de Jong 88¢ $182 36h
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle BUY Jesper de Jong 36¢ $76 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $152 46h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $109 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $203 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 29¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.86 · official $281.86 (match) · 402 history records