Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AB 0xab2e…2014 sports 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,554 (-14%) realized −$4,563 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%17W / 27L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$666per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$108
14 days+$108
30 days+$108
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,554
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +234.4% +202.5% 100% 100% +202.5%
≤30d 1 +234.4% +202.5% 100% 100% +202.5%
≤90d 3 +50.7% +36.4% 67% 67% -26.2%
all 44 -22.4% -29.8% 39% 39% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.8% 39% -22.7%
10% -36.5% 36% -30.1%
15% -42.6% 34% -36.9%
20% -48.3% 30% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,167) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$617 vs −$557 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized−$4,563
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses17 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage116d
Avg bet$666
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage MIBR Academy 56¢ 56¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Monte 57¢ 58¢ $190 $195 +$5 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage EYEBALLERS 30¢ 30¢ $190 $193 +$3 (+2%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $46 +$108 +234%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $1,293 −$1,280 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 16 $2,568 +$456 +18%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $360 +$207 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 4 Winner Mar 29 $1,824 −$461 -25%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 29 $1,390 −$1,390 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 23 $1,776 +$836 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Mar 21 $1,643 +$2,407 +146%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 19 $2,073 +$1,113 +54%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Mar 19 $944 −$940 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group Mar 18 $430 −$419 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $669 −$669 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Playoffs Mar 18 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs illwill (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffs Mar 18 $248 −$248 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs megoshort (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Mar 18 $281 −$281 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Mar 18 $1,021 −$1,021 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Alliance (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs Mar 15 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Team Novaq (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffs Mar 15 $398 +$243 +61%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Nexus (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D Mar 14 $140 −$140 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 14 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs GRINGOS (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Mar 13 $194 −$9 -5%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Mar 13 $875 +$744 +85%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Wildcard LAN Grou Mar 13 $55 −$55 -100%
LoL: FN Esports vs Team Phantasma (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group H Mar 13 $1,167 −$1,004 -86%
Dota 2: Heroic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 13 $819 −$819 -100%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 G Mar 11 $968 +$976 +101%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 11 $367 +$676 +184%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $1,279 +$1,386 +108%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Grou Mar 10 $262 −$262 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $306 −$306 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 10 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Crashers (BO3) - BetBoom Sto Mar 10 $152 −$152 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $503 −$503 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $464 −$464 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $1,640 −$1,640 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOLHA AMARELA vs Crashers (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Mar 10 $417 +$154 +37%
LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs FN Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Champions R Mar 09 $817 +$265 +32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $139 +$151 +108%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $416 +$488 +117%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs FriendlyCampers (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Mar 07 $47 +$34 +72%
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Metizport (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #17 Grou Mar 07 $375 +$240 +64%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $246 −$246 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Sta BUY Monte 57¢ $192 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY MIBR Academy 56¢ $203 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage SELL EYEBALLERS 29¢ $2 45h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage SELL EYEBALLERS 29¢ $2 46h
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY EYEBALLERS 30¢ $198 2d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY HULIGANI 29¢ $46 3d
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 67¢ $1,293 70d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Natus Vincere 85¢ $1,110 75d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Natus Vincere 85¢ $618 75d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Natus Vincere 84¢ $840 75d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs BUY Passion UA 63¢ $360 91d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere - Map 4 Winner BUY Vitality 67¢ $1,824 92d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $1,390 97d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou BUY TheMongolz 68¢ $1,776 99d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte SELL Natus Vincere 38¢ $100 101d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $1,000 101d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $644 101d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $3,187 102d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY PARIVISION 65¢ $483 102d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY PARIVISION 65¢ $1,591 102d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 58¢ $5 103d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $157 103d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $256 103d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $531 103d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group SELL B8 29¢ $11 103d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs B8 (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BUY B8 29¢ $430 103d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 22¢ $82 103d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 22¢ $161 103d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG - Map 2 Winner BUY NRG 22¢ $140 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.02 · official $593.06 (match) · 124 history records