Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
AB 0xab2b…0a76 crypto 1240 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,763 (+3%) realized +$1,763 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%646W / 525L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day76.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$182
7 days+$556
14 days+$2,028
30 days+$3,510
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,510
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 294 -0.1% -9.6% 54% 54% -5.6%
≤30d 1171 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 54% -4.2%
≤90d 1171 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 54% -4.2%
all 1171 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 54% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 54% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.7% 53% -13.4%
15% -24.8% 50% -21.8%
20% -32.2% 46% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$46 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$1,763
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses646 / 525
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1171 / 1240
History coverage28d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day76.9
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1171 Trades
no open positions (499 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$46 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $55 +$45 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$39 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$39 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$52 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $96 −$92 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$51 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $115 +$85 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $58 +$42 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$46 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $116 −$113 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $120 +$80 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$45 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$53 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $122 +$78 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$46 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $117 +$83 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $107 −$104 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$26 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$26 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $54 +$46 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $54 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $55 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $61 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $44 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $53 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $53 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $96 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $60 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $49 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $115 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $18 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $15 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 2794 history records