Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
AB 0xab2a…a19b crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$290 (-14%) realized −$290 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$409
crypto 46% +$14
sports 5% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +8.7% -1.6% 55% 55% +8.1%
≤30d 11 +8.7% -1.6% 55% 55% +8.1%
≤90d 11 +8.7% -1.6% 55% 55% +8.1%
all 11 +8.7% -1.6% 55% 55% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 55% +8.1%
10% -11.1% 55% -2.3%
15% -19.6% 55% -11.7%
20% -27.5% 36% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$162 vs −$128 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$91 -90%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$222 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$75 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $246 −$240 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $357 +$133 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$75 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $289 +$427 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records