Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
AB 0xab29…6613 other 79 markets active 10h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+19%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%24W / 55L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$18
crypto 18% −$2
sports 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +16.2% +5.1% 33% 33% +7.8%
≤30d 35 +12.5% +1.8% 34% 34% -1.3%
≤90d 45 +12.4% +1.7% 36% 33% +4.2%
all 79 +12.4% +1.7% 30% 27% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 27% -3.6%
10% -8.0% 24% -12.8%
15% -16.9% 19% -21.2%
20% -25.1% 19% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses24 / 55
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)79 / 79
History coverage165d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 79 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 -19%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 +$6 +294%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 +$5 +499%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Senegal to win the second half? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +550%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +89%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +352%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
South Africa leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $1 +$1 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $2 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $4 +$5 +131%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $2 +$3 +154%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 08 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $1 $0 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 18 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $1 15h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes $1 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 60¢ $7 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes $1 26h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes $1 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 50¢ $6 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 28h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $1 30h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 30h
Senegal to win the second half? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 42h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 43h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 43h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 3 Ecuador? BUY Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records