Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AB 0xab27…0c65 sports 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,125 (+12%) realized +$2,122 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate58%70W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$355
7 days+$641
14 days+$641
30 days+$1,939
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$1,481
other 6% +$248
crypto 2% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +21.4% +9.9% 75% 62% +14.5%
≤30d 48 +12.5% +1.7% 65% 58% +12.1%
≤90d 121 +7.3% -2.9% 58% 55% +0.7%
all 121 +7.3% -2.9% 58% 55% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 55% +0.7%
10% -12.2% 52% -9.0%
15% -20.7% 45% -17.8%
20% -28.5% 31% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$86 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$2,122
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses70 / 51
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions2
Markets (closed)121 / 123
History coverage108d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Zizou Bergs 0¢ 94¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide Chun-Hsin Tseng 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 22 $156 −$156 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 22 $165 +$88 +54%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $2 +$2 +113%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $126 +$78 +62%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $199 +$18 +9%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $224 +$184 +82%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $85 +$140 +165%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $199 +$85 +43%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $74 −$72 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $87 −$13 -14%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $198 +$2 +1%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $241 +$43 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $201 +$40 +20%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $14 −$14 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $248 +$167 +67%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon Jun 19 $199 +$49 +24%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $67 +$24 +36%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $363 +$185 +51%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 05 $153 −$70 -46%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $283 +$108 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $214 +$402 +188%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $310 −$97 -31%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $307 +$3 +1%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Chandogs vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $202 +$113 +56%
Heilbronn: Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo Jun 01 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $304 +$152 +50%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 30 $3 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 30 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 30 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $196 +$317 +162%
Counter-Strike: Yawara Esports vs UNO MILLE - Map 4 Winner May 30 $233 −$230 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 1 Winner May 30 $351 +$85 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Learner Tien May 30 $202 +$125 +62%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 1 Winner May 29 $101 +$79 +78%
Little Rock: Johannus Monday vs Aidan Mayo May 29 $202 −$80 -40%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $84 −$82 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $324 +$99 +30%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $226 +$98 +43%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $199 +$58 +29%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 29 $177 −$9 -5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $258 +$118 +46%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $192 +$66 +34%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ALGO Esports - Map 2 Winner May 27 $140 +$52 +37%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $97 +$43 +45%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $167 −$165 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $97 +$71 +73%
Jiujiang: Zhuoxuan Bai vs En-Shuo Liang May 09 $52 −$51 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $123 −$70 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar SELL Zizou Bergs 93¢ $957 19m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar BUY Zizou Bergs 57¢ $597 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin BUY Alexei Popyrin 55¢ $156 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Gustavo Heide BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 77¢ $40 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia SELL Henrique Rocha 66¢ $253 2h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Henrique Rocha 38¢ $102 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Henrique Rocha vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Henrique Rocha 50¢ $63 3h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 68¢ $4 24h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 31¢ $2 24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $205 24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 61¢ $126 24h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 54¢ $217 29h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $408 30h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 48¢ $199 31h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 52¢ $55 31h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 55¢ $169 31h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom SELL Marcos Giron 100¢ $224 47h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 37¢ $85 2d
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell SELL Christopher OConnell 100¢ $283 2d
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 69¢ $199 2d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 30¢ $74 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Zverev 35¢ $74 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 39¢ $87 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 45¢ $201 2d
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner SELL OG 100¢ $284 2d
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 43¢ $198 2d
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY OG 84¢ $241 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $241 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 83¢ $201 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.57 · official $2.57 (match) · 239 history records