Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab27…2287 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 405d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$130 (-1%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%20W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$106
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$3
politics 31% −$4
other 22% −$2
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% −$124
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.0% -9.5% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -9.1% -17.7% 27% 7% -11.0%
≤90d 21 -6.5% -15.4% 38% 5% -11.0%
all 49 -2.8% -12.0% 41% 2% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 2% -10.7%
10% -20.4% 2% -19.2%
15% -28.1% 2% -27.0%
20% -35.2% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

405d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses20 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage405d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 1? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 29 $855 $0 +0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 29 $820 −$1 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 29 $858 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 25? Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? Jun 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $856 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 17 $854 $0 +0%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 17 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 17 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $952 −$1 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 17 $15 +$10 +65%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in April? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Apr 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 March 23-29? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 13? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 23? Feb 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on January 7? Jan 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 10? Jan 05 $11 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on November 7? Dec 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.90 on November 7? Nov 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $27 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $160 September 22-28? Oct 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 August 25–31? Oct 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Aug 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 18 $308 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $290 $0 -0%
Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election? May 24 $276 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 24 $287 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $303 $0 -0%
Will Jamal Musiala win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $292 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $819 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $820 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $819 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 1? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $858 1h
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $849 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 7d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $355 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 7d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $495 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $633 7d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $845 7d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $853 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 7d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 37¢ $112 11d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL No 100¢ $967 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 11d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $323 11d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 11d
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $645 11d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $949 11d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $25 17d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 32d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $15 32d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $10 60d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.99 · official $15.99 (match) · 126 history records