Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab26…9656 crypto 811 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,678 (-37%) realized −$5,678 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate60%485W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day40.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$441
weather 12% +$5
other 11% −$56
politics 7% −$268
sports 4% +$30
world 2% −$11
finance 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -14.4% -22.6% 50% 43% -26.3%
≤30d 281 -10.1% -18.6% 59% 36% -19.7%
≤90d 811 -9.5% -18.1% 60% 38% -13.9%
all 811 -9.5% -18.1% 60% 38% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 38% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 28% -22.2%
15% -33.1% 20% -29.7%
20% -39.7% 14% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,678
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses485 / 326
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)811 / 811
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day40.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 811 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +19%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $18 −$16 -89%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$8 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $15 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $18 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $8 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $8 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $5 18h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 20¢ $1 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 20¢ $1 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 20¢ $0 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $7 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records