Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:42:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab22…1774 world 82 markets active 7h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate44%36W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$4
politics 19% +$2
other 16% −$2
sports 12% −$8
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.9% -10.3% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -1.3% -10.7% 32% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 65 -2.4% -11.7% 37% 2% -9.6%
all 82 -3.0% -12.2% 44% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 10% -9.9%
10% -20.6% 6% -18.6%
15% -28.3% 2% -26.4%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses36 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)82 / 82
History coverage523d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 82 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $22 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $43 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $94 −$1 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $96 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $87 −$2 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 22 $2 $0 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $95 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 18 $38 +$1 +2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $10 $0 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $92 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $68 +$1 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $3 $0 -3%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $40 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $2 $0 -14%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 05 $2 $0 -9%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $1 $0 +15%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $86 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 31h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $6 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $45 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $45 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $11 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $20 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $43 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $44 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $27 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $27 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $16 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 271 history records