trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | Jun 13 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | Jun 10 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Jun 08 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| China coup attempt before 2027? | Jun 06 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | Mar 27 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | Mar 27 | $7 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? | Mar 27 | $1 | +$1 | +78% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +3.5% | -6.4% | 25% | 25% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 40% | 20% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +10.6% | +0.1% | 44% | 22% | -8.6% |
| all | 9 | +10.6% | +0.1% | 44% | 22% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +0.1% | 22% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -9.5% | 11% | -17.4% |
| 15% | -18.3% | 11% | -25.4% |
| 20% | -26.3% | 11% | -32.7% |