Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab1a…940c world 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%32W / 61L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$10
14 days+$11
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$13
other 21% −$3
politics 16% +$1
sports 8% −$1
finance 5% −$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +11.2% +0.6% 22% 11% -6.9%
≤30d 29 +3.5% -6.3% 34% 3% -8.8%
≤90d 78 +1.6% -8.1% 29% 3% -9.2%
all 93 +0.1% -9.4% 34% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses32 / 61
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage470d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $49 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $98 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$10 +95%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $38 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $43 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $23 +$1 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $56 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $44 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $162 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $35 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $37 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $73 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 22 $77 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $5 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $40 +$3 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $39 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $75 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 27 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $41 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $37 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $15 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $29 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $3 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $26 15h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $23 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $47 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $2 34h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $37 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $44 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $50 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $21 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $34 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.46 · official $45.00 (match) · 367 history records