Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AB
0xab19…4876
world · 30 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$141,462 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$98,120 · open +$15,066
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$312,624
Realized+$98,120
Unrealized+$15,066
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses16 / 0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)16 / 30
History coverage40d
Avg bet$53,786
Trades / day85.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 18 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$1,054
14 days+$64,873
30 days+$98,120
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $96,267 $101,904 +$5,638 (+6%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 90¢ 97¢ $75,486 $81,225 +$5,739 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $50,006 $49,493 −$513 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 89¢ 91¢ $16,914 $17,290 +$375 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $16,050 $16,136 +$85 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 94¢ 99¢ $11,345 $11,988 +$643 (+6%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? No 70¢ 99¢ $5,411 $7,644 +$2,233 (+41%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $5,134 $5,485 +$351 (+7%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No 70¢ 72¢ $5,181 $5,367 +$186 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 83¢ 81¢ $4,457 $4,394 −$63 (-1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $4,250 $4,375 +$125 (+3%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $3,247 $3,323 +$76 (+2%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 73¢ 81¢ $2,396 $2,673 +$278 (+12%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 76¢ 68¢ $1,233 $1,111 −$122 (-10%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? No 71¢ 99¢ $80 $112 +$32 (+40%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $98 $98 +$1 (+1%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 78¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 78¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $1,450 +$40 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $498 +$2 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $19,960 +$40 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3,751 +$213 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $18,876 +$488 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $19,077 +$271 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $17,306 +$156 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $75,338 +$40,953 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $67 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $479,441 +$22,709 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $149,340 +$346 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $13,426 +$928 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $977 +$12,710 +1301%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $8,884 +$9 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $9,200 +$19,194 +209%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $29,780 +$60 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 70% +$104,308
other 27% +$8,587
politics 2% +$135
crypto 1% +$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $193 2m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $9 5m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $29 7m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1,011 8m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 16m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $52 24m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $20 26m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1,575 29m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $6 40m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 41m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 59m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $202 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1,100 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $6 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $3,328 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $951 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $951 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $4,755 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $4,755 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $4,755 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $53 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $37 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $63 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $27 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 85¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+80.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.2% -7.6% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 16 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 19% +1.0%
≤90d 16 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 19% +1.0%
all 16 +99.5% +80.5% 100% 19% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover85.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +80.5% 19% +1.0%
10% +63.2% 19% -8.7%
15% ← realistic here +47.5% 19% -17.5%
20% +33.0% 19% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312,624.45 · official $312,625.19 (match) · 3500 history records