Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:08:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab15…8377 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$27 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$10
politics 15% +$6
crypto 1% −$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -26.5% -33.5% 59% 29% -9.9%
≤30d 17 -26.5% -33.5% 59% 29% -9.9%
≤90d 17 -26.5% -33.5% 59% 29% -9.9%
all 17 -26.5% -33.5% 59% 29% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 29% -9.9%
10% -39.8% 24% -18.5%
15% -45.7% 12% -26.4%
20% -51.0% 12% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage2d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? No 93¢ 100¢ $125 $134 +$9 (+7%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 11¢ 12¢ $122 $128 +$6 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $50 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $240 +$7 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $230 +$2 +1%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 +25%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 +$1 +21%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 93¢ $125 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 11¢ $126 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $54 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY No 97¢ $240 5h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? BUY No 99¢ $230 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL No 100¢ $14 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY No 96¢ $13 26h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 31h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 32h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $4 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 34h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $3 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 39h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 87¢ $13 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $261.89 · official $261.89 (match) · 33 history records