Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab14…a6f0 other 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$23
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$37
sports 21% −$14
culture 8% −$8
politics 7% −$4
crypto 6% −$4
economics 5% −$7
world 3% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 229 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage128d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $773 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 18 $216 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $330 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $276 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $310 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $168 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $261 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $234 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $396 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $311 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 13 $232 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $323 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $308 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $193 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $353 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $593 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $173 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $118 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $199 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $202 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $501 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $368 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $256 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 11m
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $51 3h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $51 5h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 12h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 13h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 19h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $48 21h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 22h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 24h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 25h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 27h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $51 28h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 29h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $51 31h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $51 32h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 34h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 35h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $52 37h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $52 38h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 40h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 41h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 43h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 44h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 46h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1328 history records