Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:10:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AB
0xab12…3683
world · 52 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
+$4,368 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,572 · open +$17
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialistFresh edge
Net worth$267
Realized+$4,572
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses14 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)49 / 52
History coverage203d
Avg bet$805
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 3 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$126
14 days−$344
30 days+$961
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $100 $175 +$75 (+75%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? No $390 $0 −$390 (-100%)
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Yes $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? No $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Yes $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Yes $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $400 −$108 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $150 +$5 +3%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 11 $50 −$3 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 04 $53 −$48 -91%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? Jun 04 $100 −$100 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $70 −$70 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $12,931 −$2,684 -21%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $637 +$3 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $1,067 +$1,891 +177%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $60 +$2,095 +3491%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 14 $3,992 −$4 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 30 $205 −$205 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Apr 30 $50 +$67 +133%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 25 $2,598 −$3 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 24 $390 −$390 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $6,289 +$292 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $2,499 +$548 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $974 −$15 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $100 +$3,558 +3558%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 18 $110 −$28 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 16 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 12 $190 −$107 -56%
Will Palantir (PLTR) close at $148-$150 on the final day of trading of Mar 11 $25 −$23 -94%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $1,471 −$332 -23%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 06 $3,962 −$37 -1%
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Mar 06 $7 −$7 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 3? Mar 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Charlie Kirk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Mar 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 06 $20 +$408 +2042%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Mar 06 $115 +$5 +4%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 01 $136 −$2 -1%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $130 +$6 +5%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 28 $115 +$14 +13%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Jan 01 $40 +$4 +10%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 01 $5 $0 -2%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on December 1? Dec 01 $40 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Nov 30 $10 $0 +0%
SNHL: Rapperswil-Jona Lakers vs. Lugano Nov 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31? Nov 30 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29? Nov 27 $48 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30? Nov 27 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29? Nov 27 $10 −$4 -46%
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel win the Paris mayor election? Nov 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer say "Liz" or "Truss" during the next Prime Minister' Nov 27 $40 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 27 $38 −$13 -35%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Nov 24 $24 −$7 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 91% +$5,088
other 7% −$87
sports 1% −$400
finance 1% −$16
politics 0% −$11
economics 0% +$17
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes $50 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $100 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 49¢ $292 47h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 12¢ $60 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $934 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $953 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $400 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $1,000 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $1,000 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 30¢ $155 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $108 2d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL Yes $47 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $150 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes $10 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes $10 5d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes $50 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? SELL No 98¢ $5 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY Yes $41 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY Yes $0 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY Yes $1 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY Yes $5 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY No 98¢ $5 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? BUY Yes $1 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes $20 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes $50 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes $100 16d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? SELL Yes $269 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+80.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -32.3% -38.8% 25% 0% -27.9%
≤30d 11 +157.1% +132.6% 36% 18% -9.1%
≤90d 24 +143.4% +120.2% 33% 21% -3.3%
all 49 +99.3% +80.3% 29% 14% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.3% 14% -4.7%
10% +63.1% 10% -13.8%
15% +47.3% 10% -22.1%
20% +32.9% 10% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.66 · official $263.52 · 228 history records