Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:15:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AB
0xab12…3bd6
sports · 117 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$205 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$204 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$2,982
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses66 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)114 / 117
Avg bet$589
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 3 History 114 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 97¢ $2,759 $2,758 −$1 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 85¢ 85¢ $208 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Heretics 49¢ 48¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,010 −$7 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $769 −$12 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $5,135 −$11 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $16 +$12 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$4 -13%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $350 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $14,713 −$27 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,880 −$3 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3,560 −$17 -0%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag May 23 $6 +$3 +46%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage May 23 $8 +$3 +32%
Ducks vs. Oilers: O/U 4.5 May 23 $20 +$3 +13%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 23 $13 +$11 +90%
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 4.5 May 23 $22 +$5 +23%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs 7REX (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular S Apr 22 $15 +$9 +57%
LoL: RED Academy vs Estral Esports (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Apr 22 $15 +$19 +129%
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Pedro Martinez Apr 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Flyers vs. Capitals Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Apr 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Islanders vs. Sabres Apr 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Stars vs. Bruins Apr 20 $15 +$17 +113%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 20 $20 +$16 +82%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Mar 31 $10 +$6 +64%
Kings vs. Bruins Mar 31 $10 +$7 +67%
Golden Knights vs. Stars Mar 31 $10 +$7 +70%
Flames vs. Rangers Mar 31 $10 +$9 +89%
Predators vs. Kraken Mar 31 $10 +$10 +96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 31 $20 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 31 $15 +$10 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Mar 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 22 $16 +$4 +25%
Australian Open Men's: Arthur Fery vs Bernard Tomic Jan 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Dino Prizmic vs Gustavo Heide Jan 14 $25 +$8 +32%
Australian Open Men's: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Coleman Wong Jan 14 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jan 13 $15 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday? Dec 10 $37 +$2 +4%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Dec 10 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 55% −$82
economics 31% +$1
sports 10% −$107
other 4% −$28
world 0% +$7
crypto 0% +$3
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 40m
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $32 42m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $10 1h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $128 2h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $14 2h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $502 3h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 66¢ $606 3h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 49¢ $16 3h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $195 3h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $3,029 3h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $296 3h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 66¢ $150 3h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $42 3h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $13 4h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,199 5h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $192 5h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $2 6h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $2 6h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $521 6h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $13 6h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $21 6h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $48 7h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $5 7h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $4 8h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $68 8h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $57 8h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $10 8h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $57 9h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $16 9h
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $12 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 22% -9.7%
≤30d 21 +0.6% -9.0% 43% 38% -9.7%
≤90d 40 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 45% -9.7%
all 114 -8.0% -16.8% 58% 36% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 36% -9.8%
10% -24.7% 32% -18.5%
15% -32.0% 23% -26.3%
20% -38.7% 22% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,981.79 · official $2,981.79 (match) · 451 history records