Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:23:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
AB 0xab12…764e sports 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,269 (+8%) realized +$11,256 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate67%201W / 99L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Fees−$1,665est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days−$2,579
14 days+$216
30 days+$9,358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$11,472
other 1% −$480
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -9.1% -17.8% 65% 61% -17.9%
≤30d 223 +7.0% -3.2% 69% 66% -1.8%
≤90d 300 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 65% -2.8%
all 300 +5.1% -4.9% 67% 65% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.9% 65% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.0% 61% -12.1%
15% -22.3% 49% -20.6%
20% -29.9% 32% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$528) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$427 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1,044
Realized+$11,256
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses201 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$1,665
Open positions2
Markets (closed)300 / 302
History coverage40d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 300 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? No 75¢ 76¢ $525 $528 +$4 (+1%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 72¢ 74¢ $506 $515 +$10 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $501 +$348 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $516 +$200 +39%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $1,246 +$112 +9%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $508 +$432 +85%
Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs the bug (+1.5) Jun 26 $316 +$78 +25%
Dota 2: the bug vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $437 +$63 +14%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $501 +$347 +69%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 25 $503 −$503 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $797 +$194 +24%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $962 +$238 +25%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $753 +$296 +39%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $302 −$302 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $515 +$235 +46%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 25 $853 +$158 +18%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $501 −$501 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $508 −$508 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $749 −$749 -100%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $492 +$173 +35%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $624 +$286 +46%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $528 +$137 +26%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $514 +$136 +26%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 23 $553 +$247 +45%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $536 −$536 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $812 −$812 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $621 +$463 +74%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $711 +$189 +27%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $522 +$378 +72%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $504 −$504 -100%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 22 $910 +$90 +10%
Dota 2: THE VISION vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $347 +$47 +14%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $551 −$551 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $528 −$528 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $622 −$622 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $635 −$635 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $780 −$780 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $922 +$307 +33%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $507 +$175 +35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $252 −$252 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $520 −$520 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 21 $506 +$91 +18%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $502 +$133 +27%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5) Jun 21 $14 +$9 +64%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 21 $82 +$17 +20%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $638 −$638 -100%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $516 +$334 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 20 $757 +$487 +64%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $497 +$203 +41%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $544 +$256 +47%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $518 +$331 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $278 52m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 73¢ $85 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 75¢ $166 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 75¢ $39 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $567 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $146 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 75¢ $3 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 75¢ $15 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 75¢ $291 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 75¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $141 2h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Power Rangers 40¢ $320 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 67¢ $446 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 67¢ $90 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $516 4h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 61¢ $587 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 61¢ $251 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 61¢ $10 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl SELL Team Bald 61¢ $190 5h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 41¢ $710 5h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $7 7h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $13 7h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $482 7h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $508 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 89¢ $180 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,043.85 · official $1,043.85 (match) · 1747 history records