Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xab11…abda crypto 179 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$566 (-2%) realized −$291 · open −$275
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate45%79W / 98L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,141
7 days−$1,219
14 days−$1,269
30 days−$1,380
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,398
politics 1% −$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -7.4% -16.3% 47% 26% -13.9%
≤30d 177 -11.1% -19.5% 45% 27% -14.3%
≤90d 177 -11.1% -19.5% 45% 27% -14.3%
all 177 -11.1% -19.5% 45% 27% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 27% -14.3%
10% -27.2% 20% -22.5%
15% -34.3% 10% -30.0%
20% -40.7% 7% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$33 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$187
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$275
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses79 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)177 / 179
History coverage27d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Down 23¢ 52¢ $50 $112 +$62 (+123%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $300 $43 −$257 (-86%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Up 74¢ 48¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $104 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $253 −$57 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $350 −$117 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $359 −$20 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $159 +$17 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $348 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $311 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $206 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $206 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $207 +$28 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $216 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $400 −$215 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $308 −$49 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $561 −$95 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $312 +$73 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $559 −$22 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $277 −$23 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $312 +$29 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $309 −$23 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $214 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $259 +$88 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $596 −$72 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $313 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $473 −$17 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $745 −$261 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $414 +$70 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $311 +$95 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $249 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $728 −$67 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $356 −$163 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $311 +$25 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1,033 −$164 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $887 +$132 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $722 +$35 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $776 +$57 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1,038 −$17 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1,042 −$42 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $207 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $208 +$35 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $254 −$96 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $208 +$22 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $209 +$41 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $259 −$28 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $258 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $81 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $53 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $59 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $73 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $52 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $81 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $151 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $157 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $152 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $153 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $154 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $78 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $77 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $150 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $152 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $42 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $155 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $156 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.96 · official $186.96 (match) · 593 history records