Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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AB 0xab0e…fc3c crypto 175 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$29 (-7%) realized −$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%81W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day97.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$38
other 5% −$7
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 41% -19.6%
≤30d 172 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 41% -19.6%
≤90d 172 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 41% -19.6%
all 172 -12.0% -20.4% 47% 41% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 41% -19.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 35% -27.3%
15% -35.0% 31% -34.3%
20% -41.3% 26% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses81 / 91
Open positions3
Markets (closed)172 / 175
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day97.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$5 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$8 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$4 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $8 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.94 · official $6.94 (match) · 512 history records