Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab0d…2460 crypto 631 markets active 6d ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%353W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day83.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$20
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 -1.3% -10.7% 57% 57% -10.5%
≤30d 631 -3.9% -13.1% 56% 56% -12.3%
≤90d 631 -3.9% -13.1% 56% 56% -12.3%
all 631 -3.9% -13.1% 56% 56% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 56% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 55% -20.7%
15% -29.0% 54% -28.4%
20% -35.9% 52% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses353 / 278
Open positions0
Markets (closed)631 / 631
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day83.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 631 Trades
no open positions (263 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.69 · official $1.69 (match) · 1022 history records