Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab06…539a world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 30L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$1
other 22% $0
politics 5% +$1
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 37 -2.5% -11.8% 19% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage465d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $34 −$2 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $30 +$2 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on May 16? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU be part of the next German government? May 07 $12 $0 +4%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 21 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $19 32h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $19 36h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $9 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $32 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $28 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $27 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $32 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $32 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $34 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 14d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records