trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 32¢ | 32¢ | $29 | $29 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 96¢ | 86¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-10%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $43 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $15 | +$9 | +61% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 11 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 09 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | Jun 09 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 08 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Jan 30 | $3 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Jan 30 | $29 | −$29 | -100% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 26 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? | Nov 26 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 25 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 25 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 25 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Buccaneers vs. Rams | Nov 25 | $17 | +$6 | +35% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele | Nov 20 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 20 | $71 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 19 | $46 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? | Nov 18 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? | Nov 14 | $38 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? | Oct 23 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? | Oct 23 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Aug 20 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? | Aug 20 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 325–349 times August 15–August 22? | Aug 20 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Aug 20 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 19 | $42 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +10.1% | -0.4% | 17% | 17% | -5.6% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +10.1% | -0.4% | 17% | 17% | -5.6% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +10.1% | -0.4% | 17% | 17% | -5.6% |
| all | 26 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 31% | 8% | -11.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.6% | 8% | -11.3% |
| 10% | -18.3% | 8% | -19.8% |
| 15% | -26.2% | 4% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -33.4% | 4% | -34.6% |