Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:02:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

AB
0xab03…358b
world · 708 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$44 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$56 · open −$39
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$202
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses410 / 245
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions52
Markets (closed)655 / 708
History coverage96d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 52 History 655 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$3
14 days−$16
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 79¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 79¢ 74¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 75¢ 50¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-34%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-13%)
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 14? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kai Havertz be in Germany's Starting 11? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Nicolás Tagliafico be in Argentina's Starting 11? No 98¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 15? No 91¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 88¢ 83¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? No 95¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 86¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ 62¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-30%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 87¢ 61¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 82¢ 59¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+39%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +24%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Théo Hernandez be in France's Starting 11? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Luke Nosek be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Future perform "Mask Off" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Future perform "PLUTOSKI" at 2026 FIFA Opening Ceremony? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $8 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $17 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +27%
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will Julian Alvarez score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $10 $0 +5%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $0 $0 +38%
Will Luiz Henrique be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.50T and 1.75T? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $24 +$3 +12%
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +65%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +146%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +123%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $3 +$2 +74%
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$42
politics 17% +$17
sports 17% +$9
other 14% −$18
weather 4% −$30
finance 4% +$2
crypto 3% +$5
tech 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL Yes 30¢ $2 29m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 31m
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 39m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 46¢ $3 57m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 45¢ $3 1h
Will Kai Havertz be in Germany's Starting 11? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian SELL No 8¢ $1 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $4 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 71¢ $4 4h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 4h
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? SELL No 86¢ $5 5h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 96¢ $5 7h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $5 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 +6.5% -3.6% 60% 23% -9.2%
≤30d 325 +1.1% -8.5% 63% 19% -9.4%
≤90d 621 +1.7% -8.0% 64% 27% -8.7%
all 655 +1.6% -8.1% 63% 27% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 27% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 19% -17.4%
15% -24.9% 13% -25.3%
20% -32.3% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.94 · official $201.93 (match) · 3500 history records