Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
AB 0xab01…dbd0 other 244 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$40
sports 29% −$27
politics 7% −$6
culture 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$5
economics 4% −$10
world 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)244 / 244
History coverage135d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 244 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $629 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $142 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $270 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $782 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $356 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $347 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $127 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $366 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $362 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $253 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $452 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $353 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $197 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 12 $124 +$1 +1%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $151 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $420 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $348 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $226 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $123 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $485 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $337 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $584 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 05 $267 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $322 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $64 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $590 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 20m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $22 3h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $23 4h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 15h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 16h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 18h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 20h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 22h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 24h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 25h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 27h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 28h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 30h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 31h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 34h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 38h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 40h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 40h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 42h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 47h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1396 history records